With the province entering Step 2 of reopening today, we analyze modeling and concerns over the spread of the Delta variant.
With the province entering Step 2 of reopening today, we analyze modeling and concerns over the spread of the Delta variant.
Get more stories like this in your inbox every morning by subscribing to our daily newsletter at CapitalDaily.ca
And subscribe to us on our socials!
Disclaimer: These interviews have been edited for clarity and length.
Jackie: Hi, my name is Jackie Lamport. Today is Tuesday, June 15. Welcome to the Capital Daily Podcast. Today on the show, Phase Two of the province's reopening plan is officially here. But the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant has some wondering if we should slow down. Today we analyze modelling for the variants and see if those concerns hold merit. Yesterday, the province announced in a press conference that we will officially move into phase two of reopening as of today. While this is an exciting moment as we look forward to a post-covid world, some are concerned about a variant that is quickly ticking case numbers up in the UK. A country that currently has about 78% of their adult population with at least one dose. Today, United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that he would be extending the lockdown in the country for four weeks as a direct result of the spread of the new variant. June 21 would have seen the lifting of most social restrictions, allowing pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, and venues to fully reopen. The new date for this is July 19. The Delta variant is a sub-lineage of the B.1617 variant. As of now, little is known about it, but experts do believe it is more transmissible than the original strain of the virus. UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it is about 40% more transmissible. Monday, Dr. Bonnie Henry was asked about the Delta variant. This is what she said.
Dr. Bonnie Henry (audio recording): All of the strains of the virus that we've seen circulating are ones that are are ones that we've been following carefully. So there's a couple of things we are going back to as we have been all along to make sure that we have strong resources to continue to follow every case of people infected with COVID-19 here in BC, and we have that. So the testing, tracing, tracking that we've been doing all along is continues to be an important part of how we can reopen safely. And the second part of it is actually knowing what strains are circulating in the community. And to that end, I announced last week, a couple of weeks ago, that we have started doing whole genome sequencing on every single case. And we have the capacity now at our lab at the BCCDC to do whole genome sequencing rapidly on every case. And as case numbers come down, that makes it a lot easier for us to do. So we are monitoring really carefully. And we have had some of the Delta variants, particularly a long-term care home where we've had an outbreak. And we've seen it being transmitted in a couple of areas in the province. But the same measures that we take to reduce transmission from any of the strains of the virus work against this variant as well. The other thing that we have going for us as if is the fact that we have increased the level of protection from immunization across the board. So we are in a little bit of a different place than the UK, for example, where we have very high rates even among young people. So many transmissions that they're seeing right now in the UK are in people in their teens and 20s, and 30s. And we have very high immunization rates in those in those age groups already, and we need to continue to make those higher, of course, but that puts us in a slightly different position in terms of the number of people in the age groups are protected. And so we're not yet. And obviously, we'll continue to watch, but we're not seeing ongoing transmission and taking off of that strain versus any other strain right now. But obviously, this is something we'll be watching carefully in the data in the next few weeks for sure.
Jackie: Dr. Henry was also asked about the vaccination strategy in response to the variant.
Dr. Bonnie Henry (audio recording): We do know from studies in a small number of people that if you're exposed to that variant, that it's still a little bit unclear whether it invades the antibodies we have from the vaccine or if it's the fact that it is just much more transmissible. So it is hard to know what we have seen with the vaccine effectiveness studies we've done here in BC, and continue to do under the BCCDC is that our vaccine is working at preventing all of the strains of the virus that we're seeing circulating in British Columbia. So we'll continue to watch that. As you know, what mostly had the Alpha and the Gamma. So the P 1 and the V 1.17. And the vaccine was effective in older people against those variants as well. So that's important to know, and that we'll continue to watch. And what we've also seen is that globally, with a number of different studies, it's shown that if you have a slightly longer interval, you get stronger and longer-lasting protection. So we don't want to reduce that interval too much so that we have longer-lasting protection going through next fall. So we are finding that balance, but it is incredibly important, as you mentioned, to get that second dose. As soon as your eight weeks is there and we now have more vaccines coming, we'll be able to do that to make sure that people do get fully immunized as soon as we can.
Jackie: Today, we're going to speak to Professor Dean Carlin, a COVID-19 modelling expert from the University of Victoria, who has new modelling released today. He'll tell us what the modelling shows for the variant and if there should be concerns going forward with the reopening. First, however, we'll welcome Capital Daily reporter Brishti Basu for a quick recap of yesterday's reopening announcement. Brishti, welcome.
Brishti: Hi, Jackie.
Jackie: Let's start by having you explain what the phase two plan was when they first announced it.
Brishti: Yeah, so the plan was that once a minimum of 65% of the population had had one dose of the vaccine, and if cases in hospitalizations were still in decline, we were going to move forward with step two of the reopening on June 15. Starting today, the provincial travel ban has been lifted, and authorities are encouraging people to travel within BC. It also means that you can have outdoor gatherings with up to 50 people and up to five visitors within your own home. It means there can now be indoor seated organized gatherings of up to 50 people. High-intensity fitness classes can now happen. There can be spectators at outdoor sporting events again, and banquet halls can reopen, and liquor can be served up to midnight.
Jackie: My oh, I forgot about that one. I don't even drink, so I don't know why I'm excited. Is everything going according to that? Were there any notable changes?
Brishti: For the most part, everything's going exactly according to plan. We did get some more details on indoor religious gatherings, like churches, temples, mosques, etc., can now have up to 50 people or 10% of total capacity for indoor services. That means either 50 people or if the venue can hold, let's say, 1000 people, there can be a gathering of 100 people, so 10% another detail about what you can do in restaurants and band banquet halls is that we're still not allowed to sing or dance with other people in these settings just yet. That'll have to wait till step three. So we're still in a bit of a Footloose situation here.
Jackie: That's an interesting way to describe it. What is the biggest takeaway from today's updates overall?
Brishti: I'd say the biggest takeaway for people who are ready to get back to normal is that things are going according to plan. Premier Horgan said yesterday that we're on target to hit all of the milestones necessary for the four-step reopening plan. And Dr. Henry said this is our summer of hope and healing from the pandemic. So that's positive news. On the flip side, it's important to note that some restrictions are still in place, like mandatory masks, physical distancing, and businesses needing a COVID-19 safety plan to stay open. Also important to remember that not everyone is comfortable with restarting as soon as possible. So just being mindful of the communities that you're hoping to travel to and whether they want visitors or not is important.
Jackie: What updates did we get regarding vaccinations?
Brishti: So the goal is to get second dose vaccine booking invitations out to people six to seven weeks after they've had their first shot so that by week eight or nine, they can have their second dose and be fully vaccinated. It's going a bit slower than that right now for the most part, where most people have to wait ten weeks or more for their second dose. But Dr. Henry seemed confident that that's going to speed up with the announcement of more Pfizer and Moderna shipments before the end of the month here.
Jackie: I don't want to get too excited because I feel like this pandemic you learned not to, but I am.
Brishti: Me too. I cannot wait.
Jackie: Brishti, thank you so much. Hopefully, this will be one of many positive episodes we do on this.
Brishti: I hope so too. Thanks, Jackie.
Jackie: And now, Professor Dean Carlin from the University of Victoria. Dean, welcome back. And now, Professor Dean Carlin from the University of Victoria. Dean, welcome back.
Dr.Carlin: Great to be back.
Jackie: On June 3, Capital Daily reported that according to Dr. Stanwick, the BCCDC data indicated that the Delta variant had accounted for about 10% of the cases on the island. And this was coming from data that only started to be collected from the week of April 25. And onwards in that time, the B 1617 variant went from accounting for 2% of the cases to 17% by the week of May. Have we continued to see this kind of increase?
Dr. Carlin: I'd be very happy to be able to answer that question. Unfortunately, our bc government is not sharing variant data in a useful form for both ciders to be able to analyze that data. It's very unfortunate. We went through that problem with the UK variant, now called the Alpha variant. As well, with the P-1 variant and outcome now known as the Gamma variant, that data was not shared in a public way that can be analyzed independently. And likewise now for the Delta. So I'm afraid I can't answer that question. We're quite eager to see how it is spreading in the sea. But we can make an independent assessment of that right now. You have recently changed the format for reporting this, so it should be easier going forward. But the data isn't there for us to look at what's happened over the last month.
Jackie: And I know that there's a difference between the B 1617 and B 16172. So there are sub-lineages. Can you explain that?
Dr. Carlin: Yeah, each time you add another dot and the numbers beyond it, it means it's like a descendant of the previous lineage. It is only this 1617.2 that is a variant of concern in that it does spread much more quickly than the other strains of COVID. And, and right now, it is the fastest spreading variant of all. So that's the one that is identified as Delta, the 1617.2.
Jackie: And you said that you're having issues with the information that the government does release over where the variants or what variants are present. What is the harm of not sharing the data that specifies the variants and the sub-lineages?
Dr. Carlin: it's not that they're not collecting the data. In fact, they are moving to a mode where every positive case is subject to the whole genomic sequencing to uniquely identify it. It is just a matter of distributing that information. When we're trying to understand the variants of concern, we really want to know how many variants of concern, out of the total number of cases, are detected in any week or any day. So you do really want to categorize them according to their strains of interest. And we know that the other sub-lineages of 617 do not spread so quickly. So just to make a precise measurement of the Delta, we would like to know the frequency for 1617.2 specifically.
Jackie: Previous BCCDC data reported that the proportion of B 1617 cases on the island was much higher than any other health authority. And I understand that that could have been an anomaly given that we have minimal cases compared to most other authorities. Is that kind of situation something that we can take anything from?
Dr. Carlin: Yes, I don't have that information, unfortunately, because it's not shared. I am aware that some time ago, there were a large number of 1617 cases on the island that I think were associated with a single traveller or a cluster of cases. And so, indeed, when those situations occur, that can make an impression that you have a very serious situation where all of a sudden, a large number of new cases of one strain have occurred. But if it's all just due to a single event, or a single, localized cluster, it's not as concerning as if we have communities spread across the island or across the province, where we're seeing, you know, growth for that particular strain compared to others. So we're trying to identify those strains that spread more quickly than others. And you measure that by seeing how they compete against each other in the entire province or community. So we're looking for community spread and not isolated clusters.
Jackie: What does your modelling show for the future of the Delta variants on the island and in the province?
Dr. Carlin: Two weeks ago, we released a report on the first projection of how Delta will affect the province. And because we have so little information about Delta, this just showed that there was quite a wide range of possibilities for Delta. There could be that it would not strongly influence the number of cases that we're seeing. And there were, there's another situation where it could have caused another wave, just like we had the alpha wave, UK variant. So that was a couple of weeks ago. This was also dependent on what was going to happen after that relaxation. At the end of May, remember, the circuit breaker was relaxed. The projection was that while you relax the circuit breaker, we go back to the situation we were in March, and you have transmission rates going back to March; we have more vaccination. And you combine all of this, and our projection was that we'd start seeing some overall growth in Alpha, our current dominant strain. And since Delta is even stronger than Alpha, we could see Delta really having rapid growth. But that's not what happened. We did not see Alpha rising up again. In fact, we saw the cases continue to decline, and as a result, therefore, we will expect that Delta will not have a strong growth rate or transmission rate in the current environment. So our current projection shows that over the next month, at least, that we don't expect to see Delta producing a large number of cases and turning us back into the new wave. So that's where things stand right now. But if the June 15 relaxation tomorrow causes much higher transmission or some other event, then it could be back to a situation where we have to be extremely worried about Delta. But right now, I think things are looking pretty good, at least over the next month.
Jackie: Wow, that's, that must be so nice of you, for you to be able to share some good information.
Dr. Carlin: Yes, it's nice to see some positive news. It was great to see how that relaxation of restrictions at the end of May did not translate into a return to growth that that was really good to see.
Jackie: Do vaccinations have a lot to do with that?
Dr. Carlin: Oh, absolutely. Vaccinations have had everything to do with our ability to counteract the effects of these variants. If we did not have the level of explanation we have now, the alpha variant would not only be the alpha variant, but the Delta variant would be ramping up in so many more cases. And so we can thank all of the vaccinations for the good state that that the province is in right now.
Jackie: Now, this variant has taken a hold on the UK situation right now, but the UK is largely vaccinated. So what's the difference?
Dr. Carlin: That's right, the UK is as well vaccinated as the United States and Canada. And it's the combination of transmission caused by whatever the environment is how much people are interacting in a closed environment, especially those who are not vaccinated, that drives how fast this virus transmits from one person to another. So even though they're highly vaccinated, there's a very large proportion that are not vaccinated. And therefore, you can still see rapid growth in cases if, especially if health measures have been relaxed to a great extent.
Jackie: So would you say that relaxing the, you know, health recommendations that we are going to be going through on June 15. Is it maybe too soon?
Dr. Carlin: The fact that the relaxation on May 25 was very successful, the decision to make the next step is dependent on what would happen after May 25. And all indications are that the situation is still under control. We certainly don't see a rise in cases over the last four weeks; it's been quite a steady decline. So it's true, we don't fully understand, or we haven't fully measured the effect of this relaxation. But it is at least a step towards it's not a very large leap or anything to relaxation. It's a prudent thing to do to take these steps and in reasonable least smaller steps, and then we assess where things are. So I think it's a reasonable last step to take at this thing.
Jackie: One concern for people on the island specifically is travel between the health districts. We know that the variants get here via travel which means that it's more than likely from the mainland. So is it safe, in your opinion, to open up travel between the health districts?
Dr. Carlin: That again, comes back to the question of whether or not those variants are already on the island and spreading it by general community spreading. And, again, unfortunately, I can't tell you what the situation is on the island and whether or not what fraction of cases are due to the Delta variant, for example, in the last weekly report on variants of concern that came out on Friday. It did break it up into different health authorities and the Island Health Authority. However, they only reported on nine cases for the entire week. There were more than nine cases. And all of those cases that were reported were the Alpha. So there weren't any Delta. But I don't know what happened to all the other cases that weren't reported there. So if we already have a large number of delta cases on the island, then just closing the door does not prevent it from coming. Certainly if the island was free of variants, reducing travel would be a major step to protect us. But there are so many considerations, of course, to take into account in making that decision. I certainly felt safe and very happy to see how fast I learned cases came down.
Jackie: Oh, my, I was watching those every single day. And it was like 301. You know, it was very nice to see you again, it's just so nice to see good information finally.
Dr. Carlin: Right. So you weren't too worried about cases doubling; one went from one to two.
Jackie: Now, to say it doubles from one to two is a lot more alarming. I just want to know, do you feel confident moving forward that this could very well be on track to be the end of if COVID-19?
Dr. Carlin: Well, I'd say that's a little early as we still have a number of restrictions in place right now that are keeping the spread down, and to relax more and more. And for those relaxations to be successful, we need more and more people vaccinated. So I'm encouraged to see that Canada and BC are doing well in getting people vaccinated. But I'm still concerned that if we don't get 70, or about 80% or more people with vaccine immunity, it could be challenging to open up completely given these very rapidly spreading variants, but still, overall positive. I'm very happy with how things are going.
Jackie: This is the first interview that I've done about COVID-19, where I'm coming out happier than when I went into it. So thank you so much for joining me.
Dr. Carlin: My pleasure.